USC Predict COVID19Social Distancing Scenarios
Scenarios evaluated
Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
- Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
- % of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
- % Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-06-28) level of social distancing / contact rate
| Scenario | Percent orig. R0 | Percent increase from current R0 | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47.10% | 0.00% | 2.05 |
| 1 | 55.90% | 18.70% | 2.43 |
| 2 | 64.70% | 37.40% | 2.81 |
| 3 | 73.50% | 56.10% | 3.19 |
| 4 | 82.40% | 75.00% | 3.58 |
| 5 | 91.20% | 93.70% | 3.96 |
| 6 | 100.00% | 112.40% | 4.34 |
Increase contact rate on 2020-06-28 by variable amounts
In the figures below:
A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.
Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).
Scenario 0
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 2.05
- % of original R0: 47.1
- % Increase from current: 0
Scenario 1
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 2.43
- % of original R0: 55.9
- % Increase from current: 18.7
Scenario 2
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 2.81
- % of original R0: 64.7
- % Increase from current: 37.4
Scenario 3
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 3.19
- % of original R0: 73.5
- % Increase from current: 56.1
Scenario 4
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 3.58
- % of original R0: 82.4
- % Increase from current: 75
Scenario 5
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 3.96
- % of original R0: 91.2
- % Increase from current: 93.7
Scenario 6
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 4.34
- % of original R0: 100
- % Increase from current: 112.4