Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario Percent orig. R0 Percent increase from current R0 Effective R0
0 47.10% 0.00% 2.05
1 55.90% 18.70% 2.43
2 64.70% 37.40% 2.81
3 73.50% 56.10% 3.19
4 82.40% 75.00% 3.58
5 91.20% 93.70% 3.96
6 100.00% 112.40% 4.34

Increase contact rate on 2020-06-28 by variable amounts


In the figures below:

A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.

Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).

Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.05
  • % of original R0: 47.1
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.43
  • % of original R0: 55.9
  • % Increase from current: 18.7

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.81
  • % of original R0: 64.7
  • % Increase from current: 37.4

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.19
  • % of original R0: 73.5
  • % Increase from current: 56.1

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.58
  • % of original R0: 82.4
  • % Increase from current: 75

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.96
  • % of original R0: 91.2
  • % Increase from current: 93.7

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 4.34
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 112.4