Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
| Scenario | Percent orig. R0 | Percent increase from current R0 | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47.10% | 0.00% | 2.05 |
| 1 | 55.90% | 18.70% | 2.43 |
| 2 | 64.70% | 37.40% | 2.81 |
| 3 | 73.50% | 56.10% | 3.19 |
| 4 | 82.40% | 75.00% | 3.58 |
| 5 | 91.20% | 93.70% | 3.96 |
| 6 | 100.00% | 112.40% | 4.34 |
In the figures below:
A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.
Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).
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